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Scenario Planning in the Oil and Gas Industry

Planning and Decision Making in a Volatile Industry

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Why Choose Us

The Scenario Planning in the Oil and Gas Industry Course gives strategy, planning, and leadership professionals a structured, practical framework for developing, presenting, and applying scenarios that support better strategic decisions in one of the world's most complex and volatile industries.

Oil and gas organisations face an unusually wide range of strategic uncertainties from energy transition pressures, geopolitical shifts, and commodity price volatility, to technological disruption and evolving regulatory environments. Scenario planning provides a proven method for navigating that uncertainty — enabling organisations to prepare for multiple futures rather than betting everything on a single forecast.

This course covers the complete scenario planning process from big picture thinking and horizon scanning, through facilitating scenario workshops, generating and quantifying scenarios, wind tunnelling, and strategy integration, to transferring the methodology into existing planning and budgeting processes. Delegates develop both the technical methodology and the essential soft skills needed to lead scenario planning effectively within their organisations.

The Scenario Planning in the Oil and Gas Industry Course is built for professionals who want to move strategic planning beyond conventional forecasting and into genuine future preparedness.

 

Why Choose Scenario Planning in the Oil and Gas Industry
Course Goals

What are the Goals?

The Scenario Planning in the Oil and Gas Industry Course is designed to develop the methodology, facilitation skills, and strategic application capability needed to lead and embed scenario planning within oil and gas organisations.

By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

  • Explain the objectives, benefits, history, and process of scenario planning and its specific relevance to the oil and gas industry
  • Apply big picture thinking and frame the strategic challenge through defining the right 'Big Question'
  • Use horizon scanning, early warning systems, and big data to identify driving forces and key uncertainties
  • Facilitate scenario workshops and develop scenario frameworks using structured methodologies
  • Generate, name, expand, quantify, and bring scenarios to life using rich pictures and narrative vignettes
  • Present scenario stories effectively to decision-makers, executives, and stakeholders
  • Validate scenarios, apply wind tunnelling to assess strategic implications, and integrate scenarios with existing strategies
  • Conduct 'What if' analysis and identify signals of future trends within oil and gas operating environments
  • Link scenarios to strategy, planning, and budgeting processes within existing organisational frameworks
  • Apply the essential soft skills, change leadership capability, and road mapping tools needed to transfer scenario planning methodology into their own organisations

Who is this Training Course for?

The Scenario Planning in the Oil and Gas Industry Course is designed for strategy, planning, and leadership professionals in oil and gas organisations who are responsible for or contribute to long-term strategic planning, investment decisions, and organisational resilience under uncertainty.

This course is suitable for:

  • Strategy managers and corporate planners responsible for long-term strategic planning in oil and gas organisations
  • Senior leaders and executives who use strategic planning to guide investment, portfolio, and organisational decisions
  • Planning and budgeting professionals linking strategic scenarios to financial planning processes
  • Business development professionals evaluating market opportunities against multiple future scenarios
  • Risk management professionals integrating scenario analysis into organisational risk frameworks
  • Government and regulatory professionals involved in energy policy planning and long-term sector strategy
  • Consultants and facilitators supporting scenario planning and strategy development for oil and gas clients
  • Any professional responsible for helping their organisation think clearly and plan effectively under conditions of deep uncertainty
Learning Approach

How will this Training Course be Presented?

The Scenario Planning in the Oil and Gas Industry Course is delivered through an engaging, participative learning approach that combines scenario planning methodology with hands-on application moving from conceptual frameworks and horizon scanning through to live scenario development, wind tunnelling, and organisational integration planning.

Delegates work through the scenario planning process as it would be applied in a real oil and gas strategic planning context developing scenarios, presenting them, testing them against strategies, and mapping the next steps for implementation in their own organisations.

Delivery methods include:

  • Instructor-led sessions covering scenario planning history, methodology, oil and gas industry driving forces, and strategy integration
  • Horizon scanning and big data workshops applying early warning systems and trend identification to oil and gas uncertainty analysis
  • Scenario workshop facilitation sessions developing the skills to design and lead effective scenario planning workshops
  • Scenario generation and expansion exercises applying structured frameworks to create, name, quantify, and narrativise scenarios
  • Rich pictures and vignette development sessions bringing scenarios to life for executive and stakeholder audiences
  • Change leadership and road mapping discussions developing the soft skills and next steps needed to embed scenario planning sustainably

The Course Content

What is Scenario Planning?

  • Overview of the Course
  • Scenario Planning: objectives, benefits and history
  • Scenario Planning in the Oil & Gas Industry
  • Big Picture Thinking
  • The Scenario Planning process
  • Framing the Challenge – the ‘Big Question’ to answer
  • The role of Mission, Vision and Strategy

Creating Scenarios in the Oil & Gas Industry

  • Horizon Scanning and Early Warning Systems using Big Data
  • Identify Driving Forces in the Oil & Gas Industry
  • Facilitating Scenario Workshops
  • Define Key Uncertainties in the Oil & Gas Industry
  • Developing Scenario Frameworks
  • Computer modelling

Developing Scenarios

  • Generate Scenarios
  • Scenario Impact Assessment
  • Name and Expand Scenarios
  • Bringing scenarios to life (Rich Pictures and Short Story ‘Vignettes’)
  • Presenting the story of a Scenario - to decision makers, executives and stakeholders
  • Quantification of Scenarios

Using Scenarios

  • Validate Scenarios
  • Wind Tunnelling to Assess Implications
  • Integrate scenarios with existing strategies
  • Implement Strategic Plan
  • ‘What if’ Analysis
  • Identify signals of future trends

Application in your Organization

  • Linking Scenarios to Strategy, Planning and Budgeting Processes
  • Transferring the Methodology to your Existing Strategy and Planning Process
  • Essential Soft Skills, Personal and Team Competences
  • Leading change
  • Road Mapping Next Steps
  • Evaluation of the Course
Recognition

Certificate

  • • AZTech Certificate of Completion for delegates who attend and complete the training course.
Collaborations

In Partnership With

Anderson Coventry

Frequently Asked Questions

This course is designed for strategy managers, corporate planners, senior leaders, business development professionals, risk management specialists, and government and regulatory professionals who are responsible for or contribute to long-term strategic planning in oil and gas organisations. It is equally valuable for those new to scenario planning who want a structured methodology and for experienced planners looking to formalise and strengthen their scenario development and facilitation capability.  

Facilitating scenario workshops is addressed directly within Day 2 — covering how to design and run effective workshops, how to engage participants in generating and challenging assumptions, and how to move a group from divergent thinking to structured scenario frameworks. Delegates leave with the facilitation confidence and practical tools needed to lead scenario planning sessions within their own organisations — a capability that is often the limiting factor in making scenario planning a repeatable organisational practice.  

Wind tunnelling is the process of stress-testing existing strategies against each scenario to identify where a strategy is robust, where it is vulnerable, and what adaptations it may require under different futures. Day 4 covers wind tunnelling in practical terms — helping delegates understand how to apply it within their own strategic planning process and how to use the insights it generates to strengthen strategic resilience across the organisation.  

Day 2 covers the identification of driving forces and key uncertainties as foundational elements of scenario development — using horizon scanning techniques, early warning systems, and big data to detect the forces most likely to shape the future of oil and gas. Delegates develop the ability to identify which uncertainties matter most strategically, distinguish them from predetermined elements, and use them as the building blocks for meaningful, differentiated scenarios.  

Day 3 covers scenario development in full — including how to generate scenarios from key uncertainties, conduct scenario impact assessments, name and expand scenarios, quantify them, and bring them to life using rich pictures and narrative vignettes. Delegates develop the ability to create scenarios that are compelling enough to engage senior decision-makers and analytically rigorous enough to support real strategic choices.  

Essential soft skills and change leadership are addressed on Day 5 — covering the personal and team competencies needed to champion scenario planning within an organisation, how to manage the cultural and political challenges of introducing new planning approaches, and how to lead the change that makes scenario planning a sustained organisational capability rather than a one-off exercise. Delegates develop the personal effectiveness to be the driver of better strategic thinking within their teams and organisations.  

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